When will the US-Iran peace memorandum be signed?

This market resolves based on official confirmation of the signing of a final peace memorandum (or its direct successor) between the US government and the Iranian government. 📋 Background On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted Operation Epic Fury, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Twelve-Day War ended on April 7-8, 2026 with a fragile ceasefire under the 10-point Pakistani plan. Since then: regular violations, Iranian strikes on UAE on May 4-5, mining of the Strait of Hormuz. On May 6, 2026, Axios reported the US and Iran are 48 hours from signing a one-page 14-point memorandum that would officially end the war: 30-day nuclear talks window, opening of the strait, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen funds. Main sticking point: Lebanon/Hezbollah, which Netanyahu demands be included and Iran refuses. Internal situation: IRGC has effectively sidelined the civilian government. President Pezeshkian publicly called the UAE strikes «madness» but could not stop them. Mojtaba Khamenei (new Supreme Leader) is isolated; his real role is unclear. 📋 Categories (mutually exclusive) • **Before June 1, 2026** - memorandum signed within ~3 weeks • **June 1 - July 31, 2026** - early summer signing • **August 1 - October 31, 2026** - autumn signing window • **After October 31, 2026 or not signed in 2026** - protracted talks, failure, or new conflict phase 📋 Resolution criteria The winning category is the one containing the date of the official public signing of the final peace memorandum between the US and Iranian governments, confirmed by a joint statement from the White House and the Iranian government. ✅ Counts • Signing of the current 14-point memorandum draft in any version • Signing of an expanded peace treaty directly referencing the end of the 2026 war • Signing through a mediator (Oman, Qatar, Pakistan) provided both sides officially confirm ❌ Does not count • Interim «procedural» agreements (ceasefire extensions, local de-escalation) • Statements by individual officials without a formal leader-level signing • Nuclear-only agreements without a formal end-of-war framing • Leaks of draft text without actual signing 📰 Verification Primary source: joint official statement from the White House and Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Additionally: Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, Axios, Times of Israel, Tasnim News quoting both sides directly. Minimum 2 independent confirmations. 🔧 Process The market resolves within 24 hours of official signing. If no memorandum is signed by December 31, 2026 23:59 UTC, the «After October 31, 2026 or not signed in 2026» category wins. Dispute window: 24 hours.