When will normal shipping resume in the Strait of Hormuz?

This market resolves based on Lloyd's List, Bloomberg Tanker Tracking, and Hormuz Strait Monitor data confirming the resumption of normal commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 📋 Background Since February 28, 2026 - the start of the US/Israel war against Iran - the IRGC has mined the Strait of Hormuz and periodically intercepts tankers. The strait carries ~10-12 million barrels of oil per day (roughly 20% of global consumption). Brent peaked at $114.40 on May 4, then fell to $97 by May 7 on deal optimism. On May 5, the US Navy launched «Project Freedom» convoy escort, but shipowners en masse refuse transit even under escort. Key dependency: opening the strait is one of the 14 points of the peace memorandum. If the memo is signed, opening will be a priority. If talks fail, the blockade continues indefinitely. 📋 «Normal shipping» definition «Normal shipping» is defined as 30 consecutive days at pre-conflict shipping volumes (January 2026) with no IRGC interceptions or damage incidents. 📋 Categories (mutually exclusive) • **Before July 31, 2026** - rapid unblocking after memo signing • **August 1 - October 31, 2026** - gradual restoration • **November 1 - December 31, 2026** - late opening • **Not resumed in 2026** - blockade persists, war drags on 📋 Resolution criteria The winning category is the one in which the first 30-day period of normal shipping concludes per Lloyd's List or Bloomberg Tanker Tracking. The resolution point is day 30 of that period. If no continuous 30-day period during 2026 reaches pre-conflict volumes, the «Not resumed in 2026» category wins. ✅ Counts • Normal transit confirmed by Lloyd's List or Bloomberg • Lifting of the naval blockade with official Iranian statement published in IRNA • Termination of US strait monitoring with confirmed normal flow ❌ Does not count • Partial recovery with ongoing interceptions • US convoy escort with reduced volumes • Opening for select countries or flags only (e.g. excluding Israel or allies) • Insurance rate decline without actual volume recovery 📰 Verification Primary source: Lloyd's List Hormuz Strait Monitor, Bloomberg Tanker Tracking. Additionally: Reuters, FT, EIA with direct references to shipping volume data. Minimum 2 independent sources with numerical data. 🔧 Process Orakul administration reviews data weekly starting June 2026. The market resolves on day 30 of the first confirmed normal period. Dispute window: 24 hours.