Will Russia and Ukraine sign a peace agreement by end of 2026?

Context In 2026 the negotiation process on settlement of the conflict in Ukraine entered an active phase. On January 23–24 trilateral consultations between Russia, the US and Ukraine were held in Abu Dhabi; on February 17–18 in Geneva. By May talks were paused: Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov attributed this to the absence of a political decision on the Ukrainian side. On May 9–11 a three-day ceasefire was observed at the initiative of Donald Trump, tied to a prisoner exchange. On May 9 Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed for a personal meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Moscow or a third country, but stressed it should be the «final point» of the negotiation process, not its beginning. On May 12 Dmitry Peskov stated that progress allows one to speak of the conflict approaching settlement, though the path to a binding agreement remains long. 📋 Timeline as of market creation (May 12, 2026) • Jan 23–24 — Abu Dhabi trilateral consultations • Feb 17–18 — Geneva trilateral round • Apr 30 — Lavrov statement on readiness to resume negotiations • May 6 — Russian MFA statement on readiness for productive talks • May 9–11 — three-day ceasefire • May 9 — Putin on conditions for a meeting with Zelenskyy • May 12 — Peskov on settlement approaching 📋 Resolution criterion The market resolves «Yes» if a bilateral written document between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is signed by authorised representatives of both sides and officially confirmed by at least two of: kremlin.ru, mid.ru, TASS, RIA Novosti, Ukrinform, Office of the President of Ukraine. ✅ Counts • Peace treaty • Framework settlement agreement • Joint document on cessation of hostilities with signatures of both sides • Document initialled by leaders and officially published ❌ Does NOT count • Unilateral declarations • Agreements between Ukraine and the US (or Russia and the US) without the second side's signature • Local prisoner exchanges • Sector-specific technical protocols (energy, humanitarian corridors) • Verbal arrangements or press releases without a signed instrument 📰 Verification sources kremlin.ru, mid.ru, tass.ru, ria.ru, ukrinform.ua, president.gov.ua, mfa.gov.ua. In case of discrepancy, priority goes to official websites of the parties. 🔧 Resolution process Trading close: December 31, 2026, 23:59 MSK. Resolution deadline: by January 7, 2027. Dispute window: 48 hours after moderation decision.