What will the Bank of Russia key rate be after the June 19 meeting?

This market resolves on June 19, 2026, based on the outcome of the regular Bank of Russia Board of Directors meeting and the corresponding press release on cbr.ru (approximately 13:30 MSK). 📋 Background At market launch (May 7, 2026) the key rate is 14.50% per annum, set at the April 24, 2026 meeting (8th consecutive cut). The June 19 meeting is the first rate decision after April 24. Reuters and SberCIB consensus: a 50 basis point cut to 14.00%. On April 24, Elvira Nabiullina struck a moderately hawkish tone, signaling that the easing cycle is «close to ending,» but core disinflation (4-5%) leaves room for further steps. 📋 Categories (mutually exclusive) • **14.50% (hold)** — rate kept at current level • **14.25% (-25 bp)** — quarter-point cut • **14.00% (-50 bp)** — half-point cut (consensus) • **13.75% (-75 bp)** — three-quarter-point cut • **≤ 13.50% or ≥ 14.75%** — any other value (deeper cut or hike) 📋 Resolution criteria The winning category is the one containing the CBR key rate set at the June 19, 2026 meeting. If the meeting is postponed to another date before June 30, 2026 — resolved based on the rescheduled meeting outcome. If the meeting is cancelled or postponed beyond June 30 — resolves to «14.50% (hold)» since the actual rate would remain unchanged. 📰 Verification Primary source: official CBR press release on cbr.ru, published June 19, 2026. Additionally: TASS, RIA, Reuters, Bloomberg quoting the CBR press release directly. Minimum 2 independent confirmations. 🔧 Process After the press release is published on June 19, 2026 (around 13:30 MSK), Orakul administration records the rate value and resolves the market within 6 hours. Dispute window: 24 hours after the resolution is published.