What will the Bank of Russia key rate be at the end of 2026?

This market resolves after 18 December 2026, based on the outcome of the final 2026 Bank of Russia Board of Directors meeting and the corresponding press release on cbr.ru. 📋 Background At market launch (May 7, 2026) the key rate is 14.50% per annum, set at the April 24, 2026 meeting (8th consecutive cut). Remaining 2026 meetings: June 19, July 24, September 11, October 23, December 18. Analyst consensus (Reuters, SberCIB, VTB) expects 12-14% by year-end. CBR's own baseline forecasts an average rate of 14.0-14.5% in 2026. 📋 Categories (mutually exclusive) • **≥ 14.50%** — rate held or raised from current level • **13.50% - 14.25%** — cut by 25 to 100 basis points • **12.50% - 13.25%** — cut by 125 to 200 bp (consensus) • **11.50% - 12.25%** — cut by 225 to 300 bp • **≤ 11.25%** — cut by more than 325 bp 📋 Resolution criteria The winning category is the one containing the CBR key rate set at the December 18, 2026 meeting (or the last effective rate as of December 31, 2026, 23:59 MSK, if the December meeting is postponed). Category boundaries are inclusive on both sides. There is a natural 25 bp gap between categories, which does not occur in practice since CBR moves the rate by at least 25 bp. Every possible rate value falls into exactly one category. 📰 Verification Primary source: official CBR press release on cbr.ru. Additionally: TASS, RIA, Reuters, Bloomberg quoting the CBR press release directly. Minimum 2 independent confirmations. 🔧 Process After the press release is published on December 18, 2026 (around 13:30 MSK), Orakul administration records the rate value and resolves the market within 24 hours. Dispute window: 24 hours after the resolution is published.