WeatherWhat will be the maximum temperature in Moscow in July 2026? Record is +38.2°C
This market resolves on August 1, 2026 by Orakul administration based on official Hydrometcenter of Russia data for the maximum daily temperature recorded at Moscow VDNKh weather station (WMO 27612) during July 1-31, 2026. 📋 Background Moscow VDNKh meteorological station (WMO 27612) has been the official temperature record station of Moscow since 1948. All Moscow historical temperature records are established here. The current Moscow July maximum temperature record is **+38.2°C**, set on July 29, 2010 during the anomalous summer and Moscow region wildfires. The previous record (+36.8°C in 1920) held for 90 years. Climate statistics for July max at VDNKh over last 10 years: typical range +30 to +35°C. Normal years stay around +30-33°C. Anomalous hot years (2010, 2014, 2022) produced peaks of +35 to +38°C. 📋 Categories (mutually exclusive) • **Cool July (< +30.0°C)** - anomalously cold July, unlikely • **Warm July (+30.0 to +32.9°C)** - typical normal summer month • **Hot July (+33.0 to +34.9°C)** - pronounced heat, common in modern climate • **Anomalous July (+35.0 to +38.2°C)** - severe heat, approaching 2010 record • **Record broken (+38.3°C and above)** - new all-time July record for Moscow All boundaries include lower value and exclude upper (e.g. +33.0°C falls in «Hot», +32.9°C in «Warm»). Hydrometcenter precision: 0.1°C. 📋 Resolution criteria Winning category contains the **highest daily Tmax value** among 31 days of July 2026 (Jul 1-31 inclusive), recorded at Moscow VDNKh weather station (WMO 27612). ✅ Counts: official Hydrometcenter archive at meteoinfo.ru; station 27612 data on rp5.ru; cross-check NOAA GHCN-Daily (RSM00027612). ❌ Does not count: data from other Moscow stations (Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Tushino, Balchug, etc.); home weather stations or unofficial aggregators; forecast values; temperature outside calendar July. 📰 Verification: meteoinfo.ru observations archive for July 2026, VDNKh station; rp5.ru weather archive; NOAA GHCN-Daily (RSM00027612). Minimum 2 independent confirmations with matching value. 🔧 Process Market closes July 31, 2026 at 20:00 MSK (4 hours before day end, to exclude insider trading on hourly data). Resolution within 48 hours of Hydrometcenter publishing July summary (usually first 1-2 days of August). Dispute window: 24 hours.
