Russia
Which foreign brand returns to Russia first by December 31, 2026?
Resolves no later than January 7, 2027 based on the first confirmed official return of any listed brand to the Russian Federation during the period January 1 - December 31, 2026 inclusive. Categories: - IKEA - 24% - Zara (Inditex group) - 14% - McDonald's - 10% - Adidas - 8% - Coca-Cola - 7% - Apple - 4% - None of these returns officially in 2026 - 33% 'Official return' means the brand resumes operations in the Russian Federation under its original name AND meets at least one of: 1. At least 1 retail location open to Russian public (photo + RF legal address) 2. Official Russian-language e-commerce with RF delivery and tax compliance 3. Russian subsidiary registered with full tax/regulatory presence at FNS NOT counted as a return: - Trademark filings only (defensive) - Gray-market parallel imports - Sub-brands or rebranded successors (Vkusno-i-Tochka, Stars Coffee, Maag, Dub, Ecru, Vilet) - Marketplace listings without RF subsidiary Source: Forbes Russia, RBC, Vedomosti, Kommersant + FNS subsidiary registration check. Trading closes December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Context: As of May 2026, IKEA, McDonald's, Zara, Adidas, Coca-Cola, Apple all officially withdrew from RF in 2022 and have NOT publicly committed to a return. Press secretary Peskov said brands 'will definitely return' (Feb 13, 2026) but no specific brand has confirmed.

